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## PhD Update 13: A half complete

*...almost! In the last post, I talked about the AAAI-22 doctoral consortium, the sentiment analysis models I've implemented, and finally LDA topic analysis. Before we continue to what I've been doing since then, here's a list of all the posts in this series so far:

As always, you can follow all my PhD-related blog posts in the PhD tag on my blog.

Since the last post, I've participated in both the AAAI-22 Doctoral Consortium and a Hackathon in AI for Sustainability! I've written separate posts about these topics to avoid cluttering this post, so if you're interested I can recommending checking those posts out:

### CLIP works.... kinda

In the last post, I mentioned I was implementing a sentiment analysis model based on CLIP. I've been doing this in PyTorch as the pretrained CLIP model is also implemented in PyTorch. This has caused a number of issues, since it requires a GPU with a CUDA compute capability index of 3.7+, which excludes a number of the GPUs I currently have access to, making things rather awkward. Thankfully, a few months ago I built a GPU server which have somehow forgotten to blog about, so I have been able to use this for the majority of the CLIP experiments I've been running.

Anyway, this process is now complete, so I can share a graph or two on the training progress:

These graphs are as always provisional and not final results, so please don't take them such. The graph on the left is the training accuracy, and the graph on the right is the validation accuracy. I used the ViT-B/32 variant of CLIP, with 512 units for 2 x dense layers after it before the final softmax dense layer that made the prediction (full model summary available upon request - please ensure you send requests by email from an official email account I can verify). What's astonishing here is CLIP's ability to 'zero-shot' - the ability to make a prediction in a target domain it hasn't seen yet with no additional training or fine tuning. It's one thing seeing it in a blog post, but quite another seeing it in person on your own dataset.

The reasoning for multiple lines here on each graph takes some explanation. Because the CLIP model is trained on tweets both with an image and an emoji, the number of tweets in my ~700K+ dataset of tweets that satisfy both of these requirements is only ~14K. With this in mind, I implemented a system to augment tweets that had a supported emoji but didn't have an image the image that CLIP thought best matched it. It was done with the following algorithm:

1. Rank each image against the tweet in question
2. Pick a random image from those CLIP has at least 75% confidence in
3. If it doesn't have at least 75% confidence in any image, pick the next best image

The reason for this somewhat convoluted algorithm is to avoid a situation where CLIP picks the same image for every tweet. With this in place I increased the size of the dataset up to a peak of ~55K (it should be higher still, but I have yet to find the bug even after combing through all related code multiple times), I could then train multiple CLIP models each with a different threshold as to how confident CLIP had to be in the augmented dataset - this is what's shown on in the above graphs.

From the graphs above, I can tell that interestingly any image is better than none at all - at least in terms of training accuracy. With a peak validation accuracy of 86.48% (vs 84.61% without dataset augmentation), this outstrips the transformer encoder I trained earlier by a fair margin.

It's cool to compare the validation accuracy, but what would be really fascinating (and also more objective) would be to compare this to human-labelled tweets as a ground truth. While I'm unsure if I can publish the exact results and details of this experiment at this time, I can say that the results were very surprising: the transformer encoder narrowly beat CLIP in accuracy when comparing them against the ~2K human-labelled tweets!

The effect of this is that the images may not contain much information that's useful when predicting the positive/negative sentiment, so attempts to extract information from the images likely need to use a different strategy. I speculate here that the reason it appeared to boost the validation accuracy of CLIP is that it assisted CLIP in figuring out what actually being asked of it - similar to the "prompt engineering" the authors of CLIP mention in their section on CLIP's limitations.

### Wrapping this half up

To wrap the social media half of my project up (for now at least), I'm writing a journal article to summarise the (sub)project. This will also include data and experiments from some of the students who participated in the Hackathon in AI for Sustainability 2022. I doubt that the journal I ultimately end up submitting to would like it very much if I release too many more details about this at this time, so a deeper discussion on the results, the journal I've chosen with my PhD supervisor's help to submit to, and the paper will have to wait until I finish it and it (hopefully!) gets accepted and published.

It's been slow-going on writing this journal article - both because it's my first one and because I'm drawing content together from many different sources, but I think I'm getting there.

Once I've finished writing this journal article, I believe I'll be turning my attention to the rainfall radar half of my project while I wait for a decision on whether it'll be published or not - so you can expect more on this in the next post in this series.

### The plan

Going on a bit of a tangent, the CLIP portion of the project has been very helpful in introducing me to how important optimising the data preprocessing pipeline is - especially the data augmentation part. By preprocessing in parallel and reshuffling some things, I was able to bump the average usage of my Nvidia GeForce 3060 GPU from around 10% to well over 80%, speeding up the process of augmenting the data from ~10 minutes per tweet to just 1.5 seconds per tweet! It's well worth spending a few hours on your data processing pipeline if you know you'll be training and retraining your model a bunch of times as you tweak it, as you could save yourself many hours of training time.

A number of key things to watch out for that I've found so far, in no particular order:

• Preprocessing data in parallel is very important. You can usually boost performance by as many times as you have CPU cores!
• Reading data from a stream makes it awkward to parallelise. It's much easier and simpler to handle e.g. 1 image per file than a stream of images in a single file.
• Image decoding is expensive, meaning that you'll most likely hit a CPU bottleneck if your model handles images. Ensuring images are JPEG can help, as PNGs are more expensive to decode.
• Similarly, the image decoder you use can significantly affect performance. I used simplejpeg, but I've heard that if you wrap Tensorflow's native image decoding in an input pipeline that can also be good as it can compile it into something more efficient. Test different methods with your own dataset to see which is best.
• Given that your preprocessing pipeline will run for every epoch, investigate if you can do any expensive steps just once before training begins.

In the future I'd like to write a blog post that more thoroughly compares PyTorch and Tensorflow now that I have more experience with both of them. They have different strengths and weaknesses which make them both good fits for different types of models and projects.

All this experience will be very useful indeed when I turn my attention back to the rainfall radar portion of my project. My current plan is to investigate training a CLIP model to comparatively train the rainfall radar + heightmap and the water depth data against one another. As of now I haven't looked into the specifics and details of how CLIP's training process actually works, but I'm hoping it's not too complicated to either re-use their code or implement my own.

In training such a CLIP model, it should in theory tell me whether there's any relationship between the two at all that a model can learn. If there is, then I can then move on to the next step and connect a decoder of some description to the model that will produce an image as an output. If anyone has any good resources on this, please do comment below as I'm rather unsure as to where to begin (I've tried an autoencoder design in the past for this model - albeit without CLIP - and it didn't go very well).

### Conclusion

Since last time, I've trained a bunch of CLIP models, and compared these (in more ways than one) to the transformer encoder I trained earlier. To extract useful information from images, a different strategy is likely needed as it doesn't appear that they contain much useful information about sentiment in the context of a flooding situation.

In training the CLIP models however, I've gained a lot of very valuable experience that will greatly help me in implementing an efficient model and pipeline for the rainfall radar half of my project. If I could go back and do this all again, I would have started the social media half of my project first, as it's taught me a whole bunch of very useful things that would have saved me a lot of time on my rainfall radar project....

If you've found this interesting, are confused about anything here, or have any suggestions, please do comment below! I'd love to hear from you.

## 500 posts - thank you!

500 posts is a lot. When I started writing back in 2014, I never imagined that I was make it to this milestone. I've thought for a while about what I wanted to do to celebrate, but couldn't think of anything specific - so I wanted to thank everyone who has supported me so far in my journey through University - first in my undergraduate course, then in my MSc course, and now in my PhD.

It was Rob Miles that first encouraged me to start a blog in the first year of my undergraduate course. A few weeks later, and I had gone from a coming soon page to building starbeamrainbowlabs.com, followed closely by this blog which I put together piece by piece.

The backend is actually written in PHP - though it is on my (seemingly endless :P) todo list to rewrite it as it's not particularly well written. I've made a start on this already by refactoring the commenting system (and adding more statistics), but I haven't touched the blog itself and the main website (particularly the CSS) much yet.

In total, over the last 499 posts (I'm still writing this post as of the time of typing) I've written 347,256 words in total, counted by doing cat *.md | tr -d -- '-{}();=><' | wc -w on all the markdown sources of the posts I've written. This is a mind boggling number! I suspect it's somewhat inflated by the code I include in my blog posts though.

On these, I've received 192 (probably) genuine top-level comments that aren't spam (not counting replies, which are difficult to count with jq, as the replies parameter isn't always present in my backend JSON files I store comments in). Each and every one of these has been helpful, and given me motivation to continue writing here - especially more recently on my PhD Update series.

I might have missed some spam comments, so do get in touch if you spot one.

From my first post way back on 29th June 2014 to this post in the present spans exactly 7 years, 10 months, 13 days, and 8 hours (or 2874 days and 8 hours), averaging 5 days 17 hours between each post overall.

I would like to thank everyone who has supported me on this incredible journey - especially my personal supervisor and also my PhD supervisor - both of whom have continuously assisted me with issues both large and small at all times of the day and year. The entire Department of Computer Science at the University of Hull - members both past and present - have all been very kind and helpful, and I'm deeply grateful to have had such a welcoming place to be.

Finally, thank you for reading. While I don't write posts on my blog here expecting that anyone will read them, it's amazing to see and hear about people finding them helpful :D

I can't say where I'm headed next after my PhD (the end of which is still some time away), but I can say that I'm committed to posting on this blog - so it won't be going anywhere any time soon :P

## Using whiptail for text-based user interfaces

One of my ongoing projects is to implement a Bash-based raspberry pi provisioning system for hosts in my raspberry pi cluster. This is particularly important given that Debian 11 bullseye was released a number of months ago, and while it is technically possible to upgrade a host in-place from Debian 10 buster to Debian 11 bullseye, this is a lot of work that I'd rather avoid.

In implementing a Bash-based provisioning system, I'll have a system that allows me to rapidly provision a brand-new DietPi (or potentially other OSes in the future, but that's out-of-scope of version 1) automatically. Once the provisioning process is complete, I need only reboot it and potentially set a static IP address on my router and I'll then have a fully functional cluster host that requires no additional intervention (except to update it regularly of course).

The difficulty here is I don't yet have enough hosts in my cluster that I can have a clear server / worker division, since my Hashicorp Nomad and Consul clusters both have 3 server nodes for redundancy rather than 1. It is for this reason I need a system in my provisioning system that can ask me what configuration I want the new host to have.

To do this, I rediscovered the whiptail command, which is installed by default on pretty much every system I've encountered so far, and it allows you do develop surprisingly flexible text based user interfaces with relatively little effort, so I wanted to share it here.

Unfortunately, while it's very cool and also relatively easy to use, it also has a lot of options and can result in command invocations like this:

whiptail --title "Some title" --inputbox "Enter a hostname:" 10 40 "default_value" 3>&1 1>&2 2>&3;

...and it only gets more complicated from here. In particular the 2>&1 1>&2 2>&3 bit there is a fancy way of flipping the standard output and standard error.

I thought to myself that surely there must be a way that I can simplify this down to make it easier to use, so I implemented a number of wrapper functions:

ask_yesno() {
local question="$1"; whiptail --title "Step${step_current} / ${step_max}" --yesno "${question}" 40 8;
return "$?"; # Not actually needed, but best to be explicit } This first one asks a simple yes/no question. Use it like this: if ask_yesno "Some question here"; then echo "Yep!"; else echo "Nope :-/"; fi Next up, to ask the user for a string of text: # Asks the user for a string of text. #$1    The window title.
# $2 The question to ask. #$3    The default text value.
# Returns the answer as a string on the standard output.
local title="$1"; local question="$2";
local default_text="$3"; whiptail --title "${title}" --inputbox "${question}" 10 40 "${default_text}" 3>&1 1>&2 2>&3;
return "$?"; # Not actually needed, but best to be explicit } # Asks the user for a password. #$1    The window title.
# $2 The question to ask. #$3    The default text value.
# Returns the answer as a string on the standard output.
local title="$1"; local question="$2";
local default_text="$3"; whiptail --title "${title}" --passwordbox "${question}" 10 40 "${default_text}" 3>&1 1>&2 2>&3;
return "$?"; # Not actually needed, but best to be explicit } These both work in the same way - it's just that with ask_password it uses asterisks instead of the actual characters the user is typing to hide what they are typing. Use them like this: new_hostname="$(ask_text "Provisioning step 1 / 4" "Enter a hostname:" "${HOSTNAME}")"; sekret="$(ask_password "Provisioning step 2 / 4" "Enter a sekret:")";

The default value there is of course optional, since in Bash if a variable does not hold a value it is simply considered to be empty.

Finally, I needed a mechanism to ask the user to choose at most 1 value from a predefined list:

# Asks the user to choose at most 1 item from a list of items.
# $1 The window title. #$2..$n The items that the user must choose between. # Returns the chosen item as a string on the standard output. ask_multichoice() { local title="$1"; shift;
local args=();
while [[ "$#" -gt 0 ]]; do args+=("$1");
args+=("$1"); shift; done whiptail --nocancel --notags --menu "$title" 15 40 5 "${args[@]}" 3>&1 1>&2 2>&3; return "$?"; # Not actually needed, but best to be explicit
}

This one is a bit special, as it stores the items in an array before passing it to whiptail. This works because of word splitting, which is when the shell will substitute a variable with it's contents before splitting the arguments up. Here's how you'd use it:

choice="$(ask_multichoice "How should I install Consul?" "Don't install" "Client mode" "Server mode")"; As an aside, the underlying mechanics as to why this works is best explained by example. Consider the following: oops="a value with spaces"; node src/index.mjs --text$oops;

Here, we store value we want to pass to the --text argument in a variable. Unfortunately, we didn't quote $oops when we passed it to our fictional Node.js script, so the shell actually interprets that Node.js call like this: node src/index.mjs --text a value with spaces; That's not right at all! Without the quotes around a value with spaces there, process.argv will actually look like this: [ '/usr/local/lib/node/bin/node', '/tmp/test/src/index.mjs', '--text', 'a', 'value', 'with', 'spaces' ] The a value with spaces there has been considered by the Node.js subprocess as 4 different values! Now, if we include the quotes there instead like so: oops="a value with spaces"; node src/index.mjs --text "$oops";

...the shell will correctly expand it to look like this:

node src/index.mjs --text "a value with spaces";

... which then looks like this to our Node.js subprocess:

[
'/usr/local/lib/node/bin/node',
'/tmp/test/src/index.mjs',
'--text',
'a value with spaces'
]

Much better! This is important to understand, as when we start talking about arrays in Bash things start to work a little differently. Consider this example:

items=("an apple" "a banana" "an orange")

/tmp/test.mjs --text "${item[@]}" Can you guess what process.argv will look like? The result might surprise you: [ '/usr/local/lib/node/bin/node', '/tmp/test.mjs', '--text', 'an apple', 'a banana', 'an orange' ] Each element of the Bash array has been turned into a separate item - even when we quoted it and the items themselves contain spaces! What's going on here? In this case, we used [@] when addressing our items Bash array, which causes Bash to expand it like this: /tmp/test.mjs --text "an apple" "a banana" "an orange" ....so it quotes each item in the array separately. If we forgot the quotes instead like this: /tmp/test.mjs --text${item[@]}

...we would get this in process.argv:

[
'/usr/local/lib/node/bin/node',
'/tmp/test.mjs',
'--text',
'an',
'apple',
'a',
'banana',
'an',
'orange'
]

Here, Bash still expands each element separately, but does not quote each item. Because each item isn't quoted, when the command is actually executed, it splits everything a second time!

As a side note, if you want all the items in a Bash array in a single quoted item, you need to use an asterisk * instead of an at-sign @ like so:

/tmp/test.mjs --text "\${a[*]}";

....which would yield the following process.argv:

[
'/usr/local/lib/node/bin/node',
'/tmp/test.mjs',
'--text',
'an apple a banana an orange'
]

With that, we have a set of functions that make whiptail much easier to use. Once it's finished, I'll write a post on my Bash-based cluster host provisioning script and explain my design philosophy behind it and how it works.

## Switching from XFCE4 to KDE Plasma

While I use Unity (7.5) and Ubuntu on my main laptop, on my travel laptop I instead use Artix Linux. Recently, I've been experiencing an issue where when I login to the lock screen after resume the device from sleep, I get a black screen.

Rather than digging around endlessly attempting to fix the issue (I didn't even know where to start), I've been meaning to try out KDE Plasma, which is 1 of a number of popular desktop environments available. To this end, I switched from XFCE (version 4) to KDE Plasma (5.24 as of the time of typing). this ultimately did end up fixing my issue (my travel laptop would win a prize for the most unusual software setup, as it originated as a Manjaro OpenRC machine).

Now that I've completed that switch (I'm typing this now in Atom running in the KDE Plasma desktop environment!), I thought I'd write up a quick post about the two desktop environments and my first impressions of KDE as compared to XFCE.

(Above: My KDE desktop environment, complete with a desktop background taken from CrossCode. The taskbar is at the top because this is how I had it configured in XFCE.)

The best way I suppose to describe the difference between XFCE and KDE is jumping from your garden pond into the local canal. While XFCE is fairly customisable, KDE is much more so - especially when it comes to desktop effects and the look and feel. I really appreciate the ability to customise the desktop effects to tune them to match what I've previously been used to in Unity (though I still use Unity on both my main laptop and my Lab PC at University) and XFCE.

One such example of this is the workspaces feature. You can customise the number of workspaces and also have them in a grid (just like Unity), which the GNOME desktop that comes with Ubuntu by default doesn't allow for. You can even tune the slide animation between desktops which I found helpful as the default animation was too slow for me.

It also has an enormous library of applications that complement the KDE desktop environment, with everything from your staples such as the terminal, an image viewer, and a file manager to more niche and specialised use-cases like a graph calculator and a colour contrast checker. While these can of course be installed in other desktop environments, it's cool to see such an expansive suite of programs for every conceivable use-case right there.

Related to this, there also appears to be a substantial number of widgets that you can add to your desktop. Like XFCE, KDE has a concept of panels which can hold 1 or more widgets in a line. This is helpful for monitoring system resources for example. While these are for the most part just as customisable as the main desktop environment, I wish that their dependencies were more clearly defined. On more than 1 occasion I found I was missing a dependency for some widget to work that wasn't mentioned in the documentation. upowerd is required for the battery indicator to work (which wasn't running due to a bug caused by a package name change from the great migration of Manjaro back in 2017), and the plasma-nm pacman package is required for the network / WiFi indicator to work, but isn't specified as a dependency when you install the plasma-desktop package. Clearly some work is needed in this area (though, to be fair, as I mentioned earlier I have a very strange setup indeed).

I'm continuing to find 1000 little issues with it that I'm fixing 1 by 1 - just while writing this post I found that dolphin doesn't support jumping to the address bar if you start typing a forward slash / (or maybe it was another related issue? I can't remember), which is really annoying as I do this all the time - but this is a normal experience when switching desktop environments (or, indeed, machines) - at least for me.

On the whole though, KDE feels like a more modern take on XFCE. With fancier graphics and desktop effects and what appears to be a larger community (measuring such things can be subjective though), I'm glad that I made the switch from XFCE to KDE - even if it was just to fix a bug at first (I would never have considered switching otherwise). As a desktop environment, I think it's comfortable enough that I'll be using KDE on a permanent basis on my travel laptop from now on.

## Hackathon in AI for Sustainability 2022

The other week, I took part in the Hackathon in AI for Sustainability 2022. While this was notable because it was my first hackathon, what was more important was that it was partially based on my research! For those who aren't aware, I'm currently doing a PhD at the University of Hull with the project title "Using Big Data and AI to Dynamically Predict Flood Risk". While part of it really hasn't gone according to plan (I do have a plan to fix it, I just need to find time to implement it), the second half of my project on social media has been coming together much more easily.

To this end, my supervisor asked me about a month ago whether I wanted to help organise a hackathon, so I took the plunge and said yes. The hackathon has 3 projects for attendees to choose from:

• Project 1: Hedge identification from earth observation data with interpretable computer vision algorithms
• Project 2: Monopile fatigue estimation from nonlinear waves using deep learning
• Project 3: Live sentiment tracking during floods from social media data (my project!)

When doing research, I've found that there are often many more avenues to explore than there is time to explore them. To this end, a hackathon is an ideal time to explore these avenues that I have not had the time to explore previously.

To prepare, I put together some dataset of tweets and associated images - some from the models I've actually trained, and others (such as one based on the hashtag #StormFranklin) that I downloaded specially for the occasion. Alongside this, I also trained and prepared a model and some sample code for students to use as a starting point.

On the first day of the event, the leaders of the 3 projects presented the background and objectives of the 3 projects available for students to choose from, and then we headed to the lab to get started. While unfortunate technical issues were a problem for all 3 projects, we managed to find ways to work around them.

Over the next few days, the students participating in the hackathon tackled the 3 projects and explored different directions. At first, I wasn't really sure about what to do or how to help the students, but I soon started to figure out how I could assist students by explaining things, helping them with their problems, fetching and organising more data, and other such things.

While I can't speak for the other projects, the outputs of the hackathon for my project are fascinating insights into things I haven't had time to look into myself - and I anticipate that we'll be may be able to draw them together into something more formal.

Just some of the approaches taken in my project include:

• Automatically captioning images to extract additional information
• Using other sentiment classification models to compare performance
• VADER: A rule-based model that classifies to positive/negative/neutral
• BART: A variant of BERT
• Resolving and inferring geolocations of tweets and plotting them on a map, with the goal of increasing relevance of tweets

The outputs of the hackathon have been beyond my wildest dreams, so I'm hugely thankful to all who participated in my project as part of the hackathon!

While I don't have many fancy visuals to show right now, I'll definitely keep you updated with progress on drawing it all together in my PhD Update blog post series.

## Creating a 3D Grid of points in Blender 3.0

In my spare time, one of the things I like to play with is rendering stuff in Blender. While I'm very much a beginner and not learning Blender professionally, it is a lot of fun to play around it!

Recently, Blender has added geometry nodes (which I alluded to in a previous post), which are an extremely powerful way of describing and creating geometry using a node-based system.

While playing around with this feature, I wanted create a 3D grid of points to instance an object onto. When I discovered that this wasn't really possible, I set to work creating my own node group to do the job, and I thought I'd quickly share it here.

First, here's a render I threw together demonstrating what you can do with this technique:

(Above: Coloured spheres surrounded by sparkles)

The above is actually just the default cube, just with a geometry shader applied!

The core of the technique is a node group I call Grid3D. By instancing a grid at a 90° angle on another grid, we can create a grid of points:

(Above: The Grid3D node group)

The complicated bit at the beginning is me breaking out the parameters in a way that makes it easier to understand on the outside of the node - abstracting a lot of the head scratching away!

Since instancing objects onto the grid is by far my most common use-case, I wrapped the Grid3D node group in a second node group called Grid3D Instance:

This node group transfers all the parameters of the inner Grid3D node group, but also adds a new position randomness vector parameter that controls by how much each instance is translated (since I couldn't find a way to translate the points directly - only instances on those points) on all 3 axes.

(Above: instanced cubes growing and shrinking)

Now that Blender 3.1 has just come out, I'm excited to see what more can be done with the new volumetric point cloud functions in geometry nodes - which may (or may not, I have yet to check it out) obsolete this method. Still, I wanted to post about it anyway for my own future reference.

Another new feature of Blender 3.1 is that node groups can now be marked as assets, so here's a sample blender file you can put in your assets folder that contains my Grid3D and Grid3D Instance node groups:

https://starbeamrainbowlabs.com/blog/images/20220326-Grid3D.blend

## A learning experience | AAAI-22 in review

Hey there! As you might have guessed, it's time for my review of the AAAI-22 conference(?) (Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence) I attended recently. It's definitely been a learning experience, so I think I've got my thoughts in order in a way that means I can now write about them here.

Attending a conference has always been on the cards - right from the very beginning of my PhD - but it's only recently that I have had something substantial enough that it would be worth attending one. To this end, I wrote a 2 page paper last year and submitted it to the Doctoral Consortium, which is a satellite event that takes place slightly before the actual AAAI-22 conference. To my surprise I got accepted!

Unfortunately in January AAAI-22 was switched from being an in-person conference to being a virtual conference instead. While I appreciate and understand the reasons why they made that decision (safety must come first, after all), it made some things rather awkward. For example, the registration form didn't mention a timezone, so I had to reach out to the helpdesk to ask about it.

For some reason, the Doctoral Consortium wanted me to give a talk. While I was nervous beforehand, the talk itself seemed to go ok (even though I forgot to create a slide somewhere in the middle) - people seemed to find the subject interesting. They also assigned a virtual mentor to me as well, who was very helpful in checking my slide deck for me.

The other Doctoral Consortium talks were also really interesting. I think the one that stood out to me was "AI-Driven Road Condition Monitoring Across Multiple Nations" by Deeksha Arya, in which the presenter was using CNNs to detect damage to roads - and found that a model trained on data from 1 country didn't work so well in another - and talked about ways in which they were going to combat the issue. The talk on "Creating Interpretable Data-Driven Approaches for Tropical Cyclones Forecasting" by Fan Meng also sounded fascinating, but I didn't get a chance to attend on account of their session being when I was asleep.

As part of the conference, I also submitted a poster. I've actually done a poster session before, so I sort of knew what to expect with this one. After a brief hiccup and rescheduling of the poster session I was part of, I got a 35 minute slot to present my poster, and had some interesting conversations with people.

Technical issues were a constant theme throughout the event. While the Doctoral Consortium went well on Zoom (there was a last minute software change - I'm glad I took the night before to install and check multiple different video conferencing programs, otherwise I wouldn't have made it), the rest of the conference wasn't so lucky. AAAI-22 was held on something called VirtualChair / Gather.town, which as it turned out was not suited to the scale of the conference in question (200 people in each room? yikes). I found myself with the seemingly impossible task of using a website that was so laggy it was barely usable - even on my i7-10750H I bought back in 2020. While the helpdesk were helpful and suggested some things I could try, nothing seemed to help. This severely limited the benefit I could gain from the conference.

At times, there were also a number of communication issues that made the experience a stressful one. Some emails contradicted each other, and others were unclear - so I had to email the organisers at multiple points to request clarification. The wording on some of the forms (especially the registration form) left a lot to be desired. All in all, this led to a very large number of wasted hours figuring things out and going back and forth to resolve confusion.

It also seemed as though everyone appeared to assume that I knew how a big conference like this worked and what each event was about, when this was not the case. For example, after the start of the conference I received an email saying that they hoped I'd been enjoying the plenary sessions, when I didn't know that plenary sessions existed, let alone what they were about. Perhaps in future it would be a good idea to to distribute a beginner's guide to the conference - perhaps by email or something.

For future reference, my current understanding of the different events in a conference is as follows:

• Doctoral Consortium: A series of talks - perhaps over several sessions - in which PhD students submit a 2 page paper in advance and then present their projects.
• Workshop: A themed event in which a bunch of presenters submit longer papers and talk about their work
• Tutorial: In which the organisers deliver content centred around a specific theme with the aim of educating the audience on a particular topic
• Plenary session: While workshops and tutorials may run in parallel, plenary sessions are talks at a time when everyone can attend. They are designed to be general enough that they are applicable to the entire audience.
• Poster session: A bunch of people create a poster about their research, and all of these posters are put up in a room. Then, researchers are designated specific sessions in which they stand by their poster and people come by and chat with them about their research. At other times, researchers are free to browse other researchers' papers.

### Conclusion

Even though the benefit from talks, workshops, and other activities at the conference directly has been extremely limited due to technical, communication, and timezoning issues, the experience of attending this conference has been a beneficial one. I've learnt about how a conference is structured, and also had the chance to present my research to a global audience for the first time!

In the future, I hope that I get the chance to attend my first actual conference as I feel I'm much better prepared, and have a better understanding as to what I'm getting myself in for.

## systemquery, part 2: replay attack

Hey there! As promised I'll have my writeup about AAAI-22, but in the meantime I wanted to make a quick post about a replay attack I found in my systemquery encryption protocol, and how I fixed it. I commented quickly about this on the last post in this series, but I thought that it warranted a full blog post.

In this post, I'm going to explain the replay attack in question I discovered, how replay attacks work, and how I fixed the replay attack in question. It should be noted though that at this time my project systemquery is not being used in production (it's still under development), so there is no real-world impact to this particular bug. However, it can still serve as a useful reminder as to why implementing your own crypto / encryption protocols is a really bad idea.

As I explained in the first blog post in this series, the systemquery protocol is based on JSON messages. These messages are not just sent in the clear though (much though that would simplify things!), as I want to ensure they are encrypted with authenticated encryption. To this end, I have devised a 3 layer protocol:

Objects are stringified to JSON, before being encrypted (with a cryptographically secure random IV that's different for every message) and then finally packaged into what I call a framed transport - in essence a 4 byte unsigned integer which represents the length in bytes of the block of data that immediately follows.

The encryption algorithm itself is provided by tweetnacl's secretbox() function, which provides authenticated encryption. It's also been independently audited and has 16 million weekly downloads, so it should be a good choice here.

While this protocol I've devised looks secure at first glance, all is not as it seems. As I alluded to at the beginning of this post, it's vulnerable to a reply attack. This attack is perhaps best explained with the aid of a diagram:

Let's imagine that Alice has an open connection to Bob, and is sending some messages. To simplify things, we will only consider 1 direction - but remember that in reality such a connection is bidirectional.

Now let's assume that there's an attacker with the ability listen to our connection and insert bogus messages into our message stream. Since the messages are encrypted, our attacker can't read their contents - but they can copy and store messages and then insert them into the message stream at a later date.

When Bob receives a message, they will decrypt it and then parse the JSON message contained within. Should Bob receive a bogus copy of a message that Alice sent earlier, Bob will still be able to decrypt it as a normal message, and won't be able to tell it apart from a genuine message! Should our attacker figure out what a message's function is, they could do all kinds of unpleasant things.

Not to worry though, as there are multiple solutions to this problem:

1. Include a timestamp in the message, which is then checked later
2. Add a sequence counter to keep track of the ordering of messages

In my case, I've decided to go with the latter option here, as given that I'm using TCP I can guarantee that the order I receive messages in is the order in which I sent them. Let's take a look at what happens if we implement such a sequence counter:

When sending a message, Alice adds a sequence counter field that increments by 1 for each message sent. At the other end, Bob increments their sequence counter by 1 every time they receive a message. In this way, Bob can detect if our attacker attempts a replay attack, because the sequence number on the message they copied will be out of order.

To ensure there aren't any leaks here, should the sequence counter overflow (unlikely), we need to also re-exchange the session key that's used to encrypt messages. In doing so, we can avoid a situation where the sequence number has rolled over but the session key is the same, which would give an attacker an opportunity to replay a message.

With that, we can prevent replay attacks. The other thing worth mentioning here is that the sequence numbering needs to be done in both directions - so Alice and Bob will have both a read sequence number and a write sequence number which are incremented independently of one another whenever they receive and send a message respectively.

### Conclusion

In this post, we've gone on a little bit of a tangent to explore replay attacks and how to mitigate them. In the next post in this series, I'd like to talk about the peer-to-peer swarming algorithm I've devised - both the parts thereof I've implemented, and those that I have yet to implement.

## PhD Update 12: Is it enough?

Hey there! It's another PhD update blog post! Sorry for the lack of posts here, the reason why will become apparent below. In the last post, I talked about the AAAI-22 Doctoral Consortium conference I'll be attending, and also about sentiment analysis of both tweets and images. Before we talk about progress since then, here's a list of all the posts in this series so far:

As in all the posts preceding this one, none of the things I present here are finalised and are subject to significant change as I double check everything. I can think of no better example of this than the image classification model I talked last time - the accuracy of which has dropped from 75.6% to 60.7% after I fixed a bug....

### AAAI-22 Doctoral Consortium

The most major thing in my calendar in the next few weeks is surely the AAAI-22 Doctoral Consortium. I've been given a complimentary registration to the main conference after I had a paper accepted, so as it turns out the next few weeks are going to be rather busy - as have been the last few weeks preparing for this conference.

Since the last post when I mentioned that AAAI-22 has been moved to be fully virtual, there have been a number of developments. Firstly, the specific nature of the doctoral consortium (and the wider conference) is starting to become clear. Not having been to a conference before (a theme which will come up a lot in this post), I'm not entirely sure what to expect, but as it turns out I was asked to create a poster that I'll be presenting in a poster session (whether this is part of AAAI-22 or the AAAI-22 Doctoral Consortium is unclear).

I've created one with baposter (or a variant thereof given to me by my supervisor some time ago) which I've now submitted. The thought of presenting a poster in a poster session at a conference to lots of people I don't know has been a rather terrifying thought though, so I've been increasingly anxious over this over the past few weeks.

This isn't the end of the story though, as I've also being asked to do a 20 minute presentation with 15 minutes for questions / discussion, the preparations for which have taken perhaps longer than I anticipated. Thankfully I've had prior experience presenting at my department's PGR seminars previously (which have also been online recently), so it's not as daunting as would otherwise be, but as with the poster there's still the fear of presenting to lots of people I don't know - most of which probably know more about AI than I do!

Despite these fears and other complications that you can expect from an international conference (timezones are such a pain sometimes), I'm looking forward to seeing what other people done, and also hoping that the feedback I get from my presentation and poster isn't all negative :P

### Sentiment analysis: a different perspective

Since the last post, a number of things have changed in my approach to sentiment analysis. The reason for this is - as I alluded to earlier in this post - after I fixed a bug in my model that predicts the sentiment of images from twitter, causing the validation accuracy to drop from 75.6% to 60.7%. As of now, I have the following models implemented for sentiment analysis:

1. Text sentiment prediction
• Status: Implemented, and works rather well actually - top accuracy is currently 79.6%
• Input: Tweet text
• Output: Positive/negative sentiment
• Architecture: Transformer encoder (previously: LSTM)
• Labels: Emojis from text [manually sorted into 2 categories]
2. Image sentiment prediction
• Status: Implemented, but doesn't work very well
• Input: Images attached to tweets
• Output: Positive/negative sentiment
• Architecture: ResNet50 (previously: CCT, but I couldn't get it to work)
• Labels: Positive/negative sentiment predictions from model #1
3. Combined sentiment prediction
• Status: Under construction
• Input: Tweet text, associated image
• Output: Positive/negative sentiment
• Architecture: CLIP → a few dense layers [provisionally]
• Labels: Emojis from text, as in model #1

Not mentioned here of course is my rainfall radar model, but that's still waiting for me to return to it and implement a plan I came up with some months ago to fix it.

Of particular note here is the new CLIP-based model. After analysing model #2 (image sentiment prediction) and sampling some images from each category on a per-flood basis, it soon became clear that the output was very noisy and wasn't particularly useful, and combined with it's rather low performance means that I'm pretty much considering it a failed attempt.

With this in mind, after my supervisor suggested I looked into CLIP. While I mentioned it in the paper I've submitted to AAAI-22, until recently I haven't had a clear picture of how it would be actually useful. As a model, CLIP trains on text-image pairs, and learns to identify which image belongs to which text caption. To do this, it has 2 encoders - 1 for the text, and 1 for the associated image.

You can probably guess where this is going, but my new plan here is to combine the text and images of the tweets I have downloaded into 1 single model rather than 2 separate ones. I figure that I can potentially take advantage of the encoders trained by the CLIP models to make a prediction. If I recall correctly, Ive read a paper that has done this before with tweets from twitter - just not with CLIP - but unfortunately I can't locate the paper at this time (I'll edit this post if I do find it in the future - if you know which paper I'm talking about please do leave a DOI link in the comments below).

At the moment, I'm busy implementing the code to wrap the CLIP model and make it suitable for my specific learning task, but this is as of yet incomplete. As noted in the architecture above, I plan on concatenating the output from the CLIP encoders and passing it through a few dense layers (as the [ batch_size, concat, dim ] tensor is not compatible with a transformer, which operates on sequences), but I'm open to suggestions - please do comment below.

My biggest concern here is that the tweet text will not be enough like an image caption for CLIP to produce useful results. If this is the case, I have some tricks up my sleeve:

1. Extract any alt text associated with images (yes, twitter does let you do this for images) and use that instead - though I can't imagine that people have captioned images especially often.
2. Train a new CLIP model from scratch on my dataset - potentially using this model architecture - this may require quite a time investment to get the model working as intended (Tensorflow can be confusing and difficult to debug with complex model architectures).

### Topic analysis

Another thing I've explored is topic analysis using gensim's LDAModel. Essentially, as far as I can tell LDA is an unsupervised algorithm that groups the words found in the source input documents into a fixed number of related groups, each of which contains words which are often found in close proximity to one another.

As an example, if I train an LDA model for 20 groups, I get something like the following for some of those categories:

place   death   north   evacu   rise    drive   hng coverag toll    cumbria
come    us  ye  issu    london  set line    offic   old mean
rescu   dead    miss    uttarakhand leav    bbc texa    victim  kerala  defenc
flashflood  awai    world   car train   make    best    turn    school  boat
need    town    problem includ  effect  head    assist  sign    philippin   condit

(Full results may be available upon request, if context is provided)

As you can tell, the results of this are mixed. While it has grouped the words, the groups themselves aren't really what I was hoping for. The groups here seem to be quite generic, rather than being about specific things (words like rescu, dead, miss, and victim in a category), and also seem to be rather noisy (words like "north", "old", "set", "come", "us").

My first thought here was that instead of training the model on all the tweets I have, I might get better results if I train it on just a single flood at once - since some categories are dominated by flood-specific words (hurrican hurricaneeta, hurricaneiota for example). Here's an extract from the results of that for 10 categories for the #StormDennis hashtag:

warn    flood   stormdenni  met issu    offic   water   tree    high    risk
good    hope    look    love    i’m game    morn    dai yellow  nice
ye  lol head    enjoi   tell    book    got chanc   definit valentin
mph gust    ireland coast   wors    wave    brace   wow doesn’t photo

(Again, full results may be available on request if context is provided)

Again, mixed results here - and still very noisy (though I'd expect nothing else from social media data), though it is nice to see something like gust, ireland, and coast there in the bottom category.

The goal here was to attempt to extract some useful information about which places have been affected and by how much by combining this with the sentiment analysis (see above), but my approach here doesn't seem to have captured what I intended. Still, it does seem that on a per-category basis (for all tweets) there is some difference in sentiment on a per-category basis:

(Above: A char of the sentiment of each LDA topic, using the 20 topic model that was trained on all available tweets.)

It seems as if there's definitely something going on here. I speculate that positive words are more often than not used near other positive words, and so categories are more likely to skew to 1 extreme or another - though acquiring proof of this theory would likely require a significant time investment.

While LDA topic analysis was an interesting diversion, I'm not sure how useful it is in this context. Still, it's a useful thing to have in my growing natural language processing toolkit (how did this happen) - and perhaps future research problems will benefit from it more.

Moving forwards, I could imagine instead of doing LDA topic analysis it might be beneficial to group tweets by place and perhaps run some sentiment analysis on that instead. This comes with it's own set of problems of course (especially pinning down / inferring the location of the tweets in question), but this is not an insurmountable problem given strategies such as named entity recognition (which the twitter Academic API does for you, believe it or not).

### Conclusion

While most of my time has been spent on preparing for the AAAI-22 conference, I have managed to do some investigating into the twitter data I've downloaded. Unfortunately, not all my methods have been a success (image sentiment analysis, LDA topic analysis), but these have served as useful exercises for both learning new techniques and understanding the dataset better.

Moving forwards, I'm going to implement a new CLIP-based model that I'm hoping will improve accuracy over my existing models - though I'm somewhat apprehensive that tweet text won't be descriptive enough for CLIP to produce a useful output.

With the AAAI-22 conference happening next week, I'll be sure to write up my experiences and post about the event here. I'm just hoping that I've done enough to make attending a conference like this worth it, and that what I have done is actually interesting to people :-)

## mutate-a-word!

As a programmer, one of the things that I find most inspiring about programming is that when I have an idea for a digital thing, chances are I have the programming skills to make my dream a reality.

Such is the story behind my latest quick creation: mutate-a-word! I often find naming things difficult, so a number of years ago I built a thing that combines 1 or more words in different ways. I think I've lost it now (it was a long time ago before I started using git), but the other day I had an idea for a similar but different thing that iteratively mutates a given starting word using user input.

With the idea in hand, it didn't take me long to put together a quick web-based project, and mutate-a-word was born!

You can find it here: https://starbeamrainbowlabs.com/labs/mutate-a-word/

Enter a word in the box, and 3 suggestions will show below it. Then, click on the suggestion that you like best and a new row based on the word you liked will appear beneath it.

When mutating, some basic rules are currently followed:

• 10% chance to add a random letter
• 10% chance to remove a random letter
• 80% to mutate a letter.

When mutating a letter, vowels are only ever replaced with other vowels and consonants are only ever replaced with other consonants. In the future, I'd like to implement a number of other features:

• A linguistic drift algorithm to make mutations easier to pronounce
• The ability to manually edit and correct the suggested words to avoid suggestions from getting too crazy

A special mention is due here to Haikei, the generator I used for the waves you see in the background. While it looks like they may end up going freemium at some point in the future, as of now they are completely free and have loads of generators and options for generating blobs, doodads, waves and more for use in the background of your webpages, and the web interface is pretty snazzy too! I'll definitely be using them again for future projects I think.

If you try out the generator and have some feedback, do leave a comment here. Your comments are both motivating and also help me to improve and make it better!